February 2025 Greensheet Market Analysis: Paper Money Market Starts Year with Mixed Tone

The Annual Tradition of the FUN Convention in Florida to kick off the new numismatic year was a very active one. The three days I was in attendance at the bourse floor was quite busy, with packed aisles. This show has become one of the more attractive for paper money dealers, and especially on the world paper side, there are more dealers at this show than most any other throughout the year. This attracts buyers in numbers, and it also promotes a robust dealer-to-dealer business. One of the anchors of the show from a paper money standpoint is always the Heritage U.S. Currency Signature Auction. Although it now takes place the week after the show, there are always important notes offered. While the sale is not fully complete as of this writing, all of the major lots have sold. Five lots achieved the six-figure level, and another 165 sold for between $10,000 and $99,999. The top price of the sale was an item that has been covered in these pages before. The famous Grinnell set of Federal Reserve Note Proofs, impressed on cardstock and held in is original album, led the way at $456,000. This set consists of front and back proofs of every denomination from the Series 1914 and 1918 FRNs. It last sold in August 2020 for $504,000. It came from the Charlton Buckley Collection, which was the major featured collection of the sale. The second highest priced lot was another famous note, and that is the $5 Demand Note issued at Philadelphia certified PMG Gem Uncirculated 65. Demand Notes at this grade level are very rare, and this note has a consistent recent sales history: in March 2018 Stack's Bowers sold it for $372,000 and again in March 2023 for $408,000, while this time around it brought $396,000. The third-place lot is an interesting story. A very popular type, the 1863 $100 Legal Tender “Spread Eagle” note is missing from most collections. The example in the FUN sale is certified PMG VF35 and sold for $156,000, by far a record for the grade. This note previously resided in a PCGS Currency holder with a grade of XF40 and sold in that holder for $150,000 in 2018. So, despite not crossing over in the same grade, it still brought $6,000 more this time around. Another note that performed admirably was a Gem Uncirculated Series 1905 $20 Gold Certificate “Technicolor” with low serial number six, selling for $78,000. This note also was previously in a PCGS Currency holder while now being in a PMG holder, albeit in the same grade. The two prior appearances of this note in modern times, in 2013 and 2014, both realized $70,500. Beyond the top lots and digging deeper into the sale, we are certainly not seeing the same type of peak prices as the past two Januarys. It would seem at the initial analysis that a correction of 10 to 15% has taken place.

Comparing 2025 to last year’s FUN U.S. Currency auction, there were 11 six-figure lots, while 221 lots fell between $10,000 and $99,999. Overall, this year’s sale was a bit softer than 2024, but we will not be able to compare total prices realized until the conclusion of the auction. Of course, any sale is dependent of the quality of consignments, but those decisions are also impacted by the state of the market and the wider economic outlook. It appears that buyers are approaching 2025 with a bit of caution. It is true that hot button issues such as inflation are not going away anytime soon, and the new administration has numerous economic problems to solve. It is interesting to note that the nominee for new Treasury Secretary has signaled that he will pursue a policy of a weak dollar to address our nation’s trade imbalance. A weak dollar is generally bullish for bullion and rare coins and currency.

Finally, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the passing of well-known world paper money dealer Larry Hirsch. A regular on the major show circuit and the regional circuit in the west and southwest, and even internationally, Larry counted many in our hobby as a friend. Extremely fair, he bought and sold innumerable banknotes during his career, and was known for his generosity. Personally, Larry is one of the very first friends I made when entering this business full time in 2008. When doing a deal or negotiating a buy with Larry, he would often quip “it’s only money!” While we take this hobby and business seriously, in the end we trade paper and ink that represents value, which pales in comparison to a life well lived.